09.17.07
Rumors of war
From Rad-Green
Bush setting America up for war with Iran
By Philip Sherwell in New York and Tim Shipman in Washington
Senior American intelligence and defence officials believe that
President George W Bush and his inner circle are taking steps to place
America on the path to war with Iran, The Sunday Telegraph has learnt.Pentagon and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has
begun a carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead
to a military showdown with Iran.Now it has emerged that Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, who
has been pushing for a diplomatic solution, is prepared to settle her
differences with Vice-President Dick Cheney and sanction military
action.In a chilling scenario of how war might come, a senior intelligence
officer warned that public denunciation of Iranian meddling in Iraq -
arming and training militants - would lead to cross border raids on
Iranian training camps and bomb factories.A prime target would be the Fajr base run by the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Quds Force in southern Iran, where Western intelligence agencies
say armour-piercing projectiles used against British and US troops are
manufactured.Under the theory - which is gaining credence in Washington security
circles - US action would provoke a major Iranian response, perhaps in
the form of moves to cut off Gulf oil supplies, providing a trigger
for air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and even its armed
forces.Senior officials believe Mr Bush’s inner circle has decided he does
not want to leave office without first ensuring that Iran is not
capable of developing a nuclear weapon.The intelligence source said: “No one outside that tight circle knows
what is going to happen.” But he said that within the CIA “many if not
most officials believe that diplomacy is failing” and that “top
Pentagon brass believes the same”.He said: “A strike will probably follow a gradual escalation. Over the
next few weeks and months the US will build tensions and evidence
around Iranian activities in Iraq.”Previously, accusations that Mr Bush was set on war with Iran have
come almost entirely from his critics.Many senior operatives within the CIA are highly critical of Mr Bush’s
handling of the Iraq war, though they themselves are considered
ineffective and unreliable by hardliners close to Mr Cheney.The vice president is said to advocate the use of bunker-busting
tactical nuclear weapons against Iran’s nuclear sites. His allies
dispute this, but Mr Cheney is understood to be lobbying for air
strikes if sites can be identified where Revolutionary Guard units are
training Shia militias.Recent developments over Iraq appear to fit with the pattern of
escalation predicted by Pentagon officials.Gen David Petraeus, Mr Bush’s senior Iraq commander, denounced the
Iranian “proxy war” in Iraq last week as he built support in
Washington for the US military surge in Baghdad.The US also announced the creation of a new base near the Iraqi border
town of Badra, the first of what could be several locations to tackle
the smuggling of weapons from Iran.A State Department source familiar with White House discussions said
that Miss Rice, under pressure from senior counter-proliferation
officials to acknowledge that military action may be necessary, is now
working with Mr Cheney to find a way to reconcile their positions and
present a united front to the President.The source said: “When you go down there and see the body language,
you can see that Cheney is still The Man. Condi pushed for diplomacy
but she is no dove. If it becomes necessary she will be on board.“Both of them are very close to the president, and where they differ
they are working together to find a way to present a position they can
both live with.”The official contrasted the efforts of the secretary of state to work
with the vice-president with the “open warfare between Colin Powell
and Donald Rumsfeld before the Iraq war”.Miss Rice’s bottom line is that if the administration is to go to war
again it must build the case over a period of months and win
sufficient support on Capitol Hill.The Sunday Telegraph has been told that Mr Bush has privately promised
her that he would consult “meaningfully” with Congressional leaders of
both parties before any military action against Iran on the
understanding that Miss Rice would resign if this did not happen.The intelligence officer said that the US military has “two major
contingency plans” for air strikes on Iran.“One is to bomb only the nuclear facilities. The second option is for
a much bigger strike that would - over two or three days - hit all of
the significant military sites as well. This plan involves more than
2,000 targets.”
Sunday Telegraph 17/09/2007