10.29.07
Tipping points
From Rad-Green
Earth racing for ecological ‘tipping point,’ UN warns
Mike De Souza
Ottawa — The planet is in danger of crossing a “tipping point” of
irreversible damage to its atmosphere, climate, water and ecosystems
unless governments can develop comprehensive strategies to promote
sustainable growth, warns a new report released Thursday by an
environmental advocacy branch of the United Nations.
“Biophysical and social systems can reach tipping points, beyond which
there are abrupt, accelerating, or potentially irreversible changes,”
said the 540-page Global Environment Outlook, produced by authors from
around the world for the UN Environment Program.
The report, the fourth of its kind since 1997, acknowledged that some
environmental trends could slow down or reverse because of anticipated
changes in demographics, material consumption or technological
breakthroughs, but not necessarily before human activities in an
“increasingly globalized, industrialized and interconnected world”
push them across a dangerous threshold.
In North America, the report highlighted as main concerns such issues
as water quality and quantity, energy, climate change and urban
sprawl. These issues relate to the overuse of natural resources to
support major economic and population growth.
“The problems of sprawl, climate and water resources tax the region’s
policy-making capacity,” said the report. “They demand action from
many different, uncoordinated actors, and require a rethinking of
notions of progress and well being.”
Jane Barr, a Canadian author of the report, said the wildfires
currently raging in California underscore the impact of urban sprawl
and climate change.
The problem begins with “the movement of suburbs into areas that are
in danger of burning,” she observed in Ottawa at the North American
launch of the UN report, adding: “then you have the whole climate
change question, and I think climate change is probably exacerbating
the conditions that give rise to wildfires in southern California.”
She added that the massive use of water for oilsands production in
Alberta is also putting the province’s water in jeopardy.
“Scientists do know that there are potential tipping points and that’s
something new, and that’s something that this report will highlight,
and it might catch people’s eyes because there are dangers out there.
That is certain,” said Barr, a consultant from Montreal with a
background in geography.
The report also noted that:
n Outdoor and indoor air pollution kills more than two million people
per year.
n The hole in the ozone layer over the Antarctic is larger than ever
but could recover by 2060 if countries abide by a 1987 treaty signed
in Montreal.
n North Americans have the highest per-capita consumption of water.
The availability of fresh water is declining while contaminated water
is the single greatest environmental cause of human sickness and
death.
n Aquatic ecosystems are heavily exploited by activities such as
fishing, jeopardizing food supplies and biodiversity.
n More than 16,000 species face extinction.
The report also blamed North American agriculture for using too much
water, while noting that poor infrastructure allows up to 50 per cent
of supplies to leak from pipes. Pollution of freshwater sources such
as the Great Lakes is also a major concern.
“The Great Lakes are still subject to contaminated run-off, untreated
municipal sewage, eroding shorelines, wetland loss and invasive
species,” said the report.
“There are more than 160 non-native species in the lakes, and some,
such as the zebra mussel, cause serious harm. Urban sprawl and
population growth throughout the region are harming the ecosystem. The
cumulative effect of these pressures is threatening its health, and
efforts are now under way to study this ecosystem as a whole.”
The report suggested that aggressive government policies to promote
sustainable growth could address the environmental concerns.
“The solutions to these problems will ultimately require ambitious
policies, such as market-based mechanisms to value natural resources,
such as watersheds, support for technological innovation, and
forward-thinking ’smart growth’ strategies,” said the report. “A
worst-case — but not implausible — scenario could see deterioration
in environmental and socio-economic conditions to a point that seems
to defy repair.”
Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government welcomed the findings of
the report as it announced the creation of a new protected area of
10,000 square kilometres on Lake Superior.
At an environmental conference in France, President Nicolas Sarkozy
said the European Union should consider taxing imports from countries
that don’t respect the Kyoto Protocol, to level the playing field for
their own industries that are forced to comply with the international
treaty on climate change. It was not clear whether he was referring to
non-Kyoto signatories such as Australia and the United States, or to
Canada, which has said it would not honour its Kyoto commitments.
—
What’s needed: “Fundamental changes in social and economic structures,
including lifestyle changes, are crucial if rapid progress is to be
achieved.”
Greenhouse gases: Climate change is a “global priority”, demanding
political will and leadership. Yet it finds “a remarkable lack of
urgency”, and a “woefully inadequate” global response.
Several highly polluting countries have refused to ratify the Kyoto
protocol. The report says: “Some industrial sectors that were
unfavourable to the . . . protocol managed successfully to undermine
the political will to ratify it.”
Water: Irrigation already takes about 70 per cent of available water,
yet meeting the Millennium Development Goal on hunger will mean
doubling food production by 2050. Fresh water is declining: by 2025,
water use is predicted to have risen by 50 per cent in developing
countries and by 18 per cent in the developed world. GEO-4 says: “The
escalating burden of water demand will become intolerable in
water-scarce countries.”
Water quality is declining too, polluted by microbial pathogens and
excessive nutrients.
Fish: Consumption more than tripled from 1961 to 2001. Catches have
stagnated or slowly declined since the 1980s. Subsidies have created
excess fishing capacity, estimated at 250 per cent more than is needed
to catch the oceans’ sustainable production.
Biodiversity: Current biodiversity changes are the fastest in human
history. Species are becoming extinct a hundred times faster than the
rate shown in the fossil record. The Congo Basin’s bushmeat trade is
thought to be six times the sustainable rate. Of the major vertebrate
groups that have been assessed comprehensively, more than 30 per cent
of amphibians, 23 per cent of mammals and 12 per cent of birds are
threatened.
The intrusion of invasive alien species is a growing problem. The comb
jellyfish, accidentally introduced in 1982 by ships, has taken over
the entire marine ecosystem of the Black Sea.
Loss of species: A sixth major extinction is under way, this time
caused by human behaviour. Yet to meet our growing demand for food
will mean either intensified agriculture (using more chemicals, energy
and water, and more efficient breeds and crops) or cultivating more
land. Either way, biodiversity suffers.
CanWest News Service with files from Peter O’Neil
Vancouver Sun October 26, 2007