11.21.10
Techno-optimism meets its match
RG mail
by Guy R McPherson
countercurrents.org (November 16 2010)
According to the extremely conservative International Energy Agency (IEA),
we’ve passed the world peak for conventional oil (in 2006, they say). In a
stunning nod to reality, even the New York Times agrees. In a bizarre case
of committee-style cognitive dissonance, the IEA follows up on the
admission that peak oil has come and gone with the conclusion that energy
will never limit economic growth. In short, World Energy Outlook 2010 {1}
is (1) characterized by questionable assumptions and major omissions {2},
or (2) a cry for help {3}. Maybe both.
Not that we should believe IEA about anything related to oil. This is the
gang that promised an annual decline rate of 9.1% in conventional oil,
beginning in 2009. We’re holding at a decline rate of about three percent,
year over year, since early 2009.
Techno-optimists take note: It’ll take 131 years to replace oil {4}. Not
130, and not 132, but 131. And we don’t have 4.9147 years left in the Age
of Oil. That might prove problematic.
http://www.countercurrents.org/mcpherson161110.htm